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Abstract Terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of Sun-like stars are priority targets for detection and observation by the next generation of space telescopes. Earth's long-term habitability may have been tied to the geological carbon cycle, a process critically facilitated by plate tectonics. In the modern Earth, plate motion corresponds to a mantle convection regime called mobile lid. The alternate, stagnant-lid regime is found on Mars and Venus, which may have lacked strong enough weathering feedback to sustain surface liquid water over geological timescales if initially present. Constraining observational strategies able to infer the most common regime in terrestrial exoplanets requires quantitative predictions of the atmospheric composition of planets in either regime. We use end-member models of volcanic outgassing and crust weathering for the stagnant- and mobile-lid convection regimes, which we couple to models of atmospheric chemistry and climate and ocean chemistry to simulate the atmospheric evolution of these worlds in the HZ. In our simulations under the two alternate regimes, we find that the fraction of planets possessing climates consistent with surface liquid water is virtually the same. Despite this unexpected similarity, we predict that a mission capable of detecting atmospheric CO₂abundance above 0.1 bar in 25 terrestrial exoplanets is extremely likely (≥95% of samples) to infer the dominant interior convection regime in that sample with strong evidence (10:1 odds). This offers guidance for the specifications of the Habitable Worlds Observatory NASA concept mission and other future missions capable of probing samples of habitable exoplanets. 

Abstract The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (∼200–400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate-resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species, like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions, like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (Guaranteed Time Observation program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855–0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of ∼264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH₃D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH₃). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution. 

Abstract The photometric and spectral variability of brown dwarfs probes heterogeneous temperature and cloud distributions and traces the atmospheric circulation patterns. We present a new 42 hr Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectral time series of VHS 1256-1257 b, a late L-type planetary-mass companion that has been shown to have one of the highest variability amplitudes among substellar objects. The light curve is rapidly evolving and best fit by a combination of three sine waves with different periods and a linear trend. The amplitudes of the sine waves and the linear slope vary with the wavelength, and the corresponding spectral variability patterns match the predictions by models invoking either heterogeneous clouds or thermal profile anomalies. Combining these observations with previous HST monitoring data, we find that the peak-to-valley flux difference is 33% ± 2% with an even higher amplitude reaching 38% in the J band, the highest amplitude ever observed in a substellar object. The observed light curve can be explained by maps that are composed of zonal waves, spots, or a mixture of the two. Distinguishing the origin of rapid light curve evolution requires additional long-term monitoring. Our findings underscore the essential role of atmospheric dynamics in shaping brown-dwarf atmospheres and highlight VHS 1256-1257 b as one of the most favorable targets for studying the atmospheres, clouds, and atmospheric circulation of planets and brown dwarfs.